Monthly Archives: June 2019

Do You Have What It Takes?

The quick answer is, "YES you do", but finding that trader within you is the challenge. In today's article, we will break down some challenges most traders have and offer some solutions.

You will need to quickly realize that you hold the key to success when it involves trading. The success is not with the strategy or following other traders. The very fact that we are all unique as individuals must give you a hint that you already own the key to successful trading.

I think it has become more difficult to be a successful trader. This is not because there is a lack of information and options available because there is ample available and this is now a part of the problem. Before new traders even begin their real development as a trader they are being exposed to solutions and courses that are "marketing business" geared up to sell things.

 It is difficult to recognize the real deal from the no deal.

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It takes time to develop

For most traders, it will take almost two years to get to the real starting line. This is where your official development begins. It is after you have had your fingers burnt from various online environments and your own sabotage.

In my very early days as a trader, I recall a conversation at the time with another newbie and he mentioned that he wanted to craft his trading skills over the next five years. At the time I thought it was a ridiculous statement to make but knowing what I know now, that was a very smart and thought out commitment. The trader had a development plan in place.

What are the trading traps?

They are all around you. Each step and trade creates a new environment to fail. Everything from money management, trade selection, and trade management can consume your thinking.

The trading world brings with it the opportunity to make money or lose money. The only way we keep score is by observing the funds in our trading account. We see this as a reflection of our own image when in fact it is a process.

We then need to identify and deal with our own psychological battles. These scars carry the most burden and are the most difficult to repair for our trading world.

Most times, the courage to deal with our trading psychology is the final frontier within the trading cycle. It should be the first issue that we deal with however that is not possible as we need to take on the battle first before we can correct them, it can only be this way.

A few ideas that might help you

First, you need to understand that the art of trading is always evolving; there is no end in your trading development. It will take several years before you have built a strong enough psychology to deal with the markets in a consistent regular basis.

Ground yourself in quality information and traders that have had many years of trading. These are the traders that have been through the school of hard knocks.

Invest into your trading. Those that think they will learn how to be a successful trader without investing some real dollars into their development need to think a little deeper about the situation.

Think and grow rich

Napoleon Hill wrote "Think and grow rich" and was published in 1937. This book took twenty years of research and is now the cornerstone book for many successful people in the world. This is not a book you read once and put back on the shelf. This is a book that you continually study and apply the concepts to your life as you develop. As you evolve, the book evolves.

If you are serious about your development as a trader, take up this book and apply it to your trading and life. I promise you it will make a huge difference to your outcomes and your thinking.

It is all on you

Nothing in life is free; there is always a price to pay. Some are prepared to do whatever it takes and meanwhile others look for excuses to bail out and quit. This is all on you and not the circumstances.

In a world of blame, it is easy to give up but guess what? Trading is not easy and for many it will be one of the most difficult undertakings you will ever endure. This is not because it is difficult to put a trade on or to have a broad understanding of the market... Over a short period of time these are rather easy to concepts to grasp. Trading is difficult because our ego and survival instincts are pointing in the opposite direction. To overcome this, it takes a massive amount of work and personal development. As we continue with our development, we then test it in the market. 

Enjoy your development and have a look at my course on price action trading.

Steve Teunis.

Online Ebook Mastering Fx Trading

Your Success Model for Trading

Let's get real

Many new traders enter the world of trading with the lure of easy money. All you need is an internet connection and a platform to place a trade. This allows you to play ball with the big boys.

You are scammers bait!

A new trader is easily attracted to the results that Facebook group participants set as bait. The bait is to get you to part with your money. If you cannot identify the scammers from the genuine play makers, chances are that you will never make it in the trading environment.

If you want to know more about the home truths, have a look at my E book. I wrote it to send the readers a very clear message. That message is, "This is all on you". No room to blame or ask those around you to take on your responsibility. What is your responsibility? 

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Your Responsibility

Relying on signals to buy and sell, taking the trading advice from others and asking silly questions like, "Should I buy or sell today" means you are not ready to trade live.

Your responsibility is to develop and structure your learning path. Trading the markets with success is a massive undertaking, and therefore people are looking for quick, easy solutions. This is the world we live in, it is the here and now. 

As per any worthwhile endeavour, there will be those waiting with open arms to cash in on the opportunity. They will show you the easy way. Yet with trading there is no "easy way", it takes time for ​your own personal trading model to fully develop

Your Personal Trading Model

What is your personal trading model? This will take time for you to discover. The part that traders do not want to hear is that after two years of dabbling and trying different trading approaches, you will be ready to start your personal trading model. After a few years of experimenting and following certain online gurus, you have come full circle. There are many positives to pull out of the various experiences that you have obtained. If you have been able to survive a few years without giving up, you are more than likely able to turn your focus to success.

Your personal trading model will always evolve as you engage with new trading experiences. See trading as a personal development platform rather than a moneymaking venture. From growth comes reason and from reason comes responsibility.

Three Pillars For Trading Success

Understand the market - Your development as a trader must involve you learning the functions of the market. This does not have to be at a level of an economist, keep in mind we are traders and economists are not. You need to understand what is driving the markets. To do this you need to read quality articles and opinions. Most importantly you should not take the information as gospel but simply park it in the back of your mind, no different compared to tomorrow's weather report. it is simply information that you are aware of. To help you with this, we post a daily Insights newsletter as well as daily videos to help to develop traders to understand the market

Take the time to observe the market reactions to certain news events. You are trying to create a feel for the market and this comes by spending time with the market. I explain this in much greater depth within our "Mastering EURUSD course".

Understand Price - Price is the most up-to-date indicator you will find. Price is a leading indicator and not lagging as per every other indicator on your charting software. Over time you will build a relationship with price and your chosen currency pairs. Try not to spread your energies far and wide. Focus on just a few pairs and over time you will spread your new skill sets out to other pairs.

The study of price will give you a huge advantage to become a successful trader. Most traders never look back after they have developed an understanding of price; it makes no sense to change to lagging indicators.

Once more, it will take time to understand the workings of price. Once you have combined your understanding of the market and price, you will have a feeling of completion.

Price is king.

Understand Yourself  -  Without the completion of understanding yourself, all the other work you have applied will become wasted. Understanding yourself allows you to work on your inner personalities. The hierarchy that does your trading for you. This will expose many of your inner demons that play out whilst trading. The need for attention, winning, to be right, greed, fear of missing out, importance and many more personalities that do your trading for you.

Trading will expose these trading issues. These are personalities that serve you well in the real world; however they are your very downfall when trading.

From where I sit, it is relatively easy to pick up on the various hierarchy issues that stand in the way of trading. If a student shows me just a few trades (win or lose), it is easy to identify the core of the situation. We can then start to make changes to your advantage.

Course on computer screen

Learn better trading practices!

Discipline and Self Development

Every form of freedom in your life is purchased with the price of discipline. If you want freedom, you need discipline. If you want to be a successful trader, you need to apply consistent discipline. Discipline can be painful; however it is rewarding.

A trader will need to apply discipline and have excellent trade selection. If you jump in and out of every opportunity, you will end up in trades that you have no business being in. It is much better to display discipline with your trade selection and avoid the pain of jumping into undesired trades. 

As a trader,  you will have the minimum requirements to be successful. Do not waste the opportunity. Work hard.

That is not all

We have given you the three principles to a successful trading model. Each of these will get broken down into deeper components. 

Your equity management protocol needs to be outlined. You will need discipline to apply this. Your development needs to undertake psychological challenges. These issues that you will discover within your trading will need to be addressed and managed. keep in mind we are emotional beings and we are not trying to change that; however, we want to find tools to manage the emotions.

Serious about trading?

If you are serious about your development as a trader, we invite you to have a look at the FREE resources we offer at our website.

The knowledge center on the website will give you access to quality information. The daily insights will break down price action and the drivers of the market for the upcoming trading session.

Happy Trading, Steve.

Online Ebook Mastering Fx Trading

ECB – Why Negative Interest rates?

We know that the currency market and in fact all markets are driven by future interest rates. Interest rates are a tool to manage the growth of the economy. Each piece of micro data adds to the interest rate story.

In recent years the global growth has been difficult to stimulate. The mandate for most central banks is to manage inflation and to have a stable financial system. The cash rate set by the central bank is the rate at which retail banks lend money to each other. The banks will have their profit mark up passed onto the end customer.

Understanding the Market

As volatility retail traders, we do not have to understand the inner workings of a central bank. However to understand the market we do need to have a broad brush understanding of the drivers. We need to know if the FED is hinting to raise rates again or reduce rates. When a central bank makes a shift in policy, you need to know. Understanding the market takes time and discipline. If you are reading this article then it is a way for you to improve your understanding of the market. 

Keep in mind, our role is not to predict what the central bank will or will not do. Yes, an opinion is fine but do not be married to the opinion. We are also not predicting how the market will respond.

Why Negative Interest rates?

The purpose of negative interest rates is to increase inflation and growth. To increase inflation, spending is needed. People can borrow at much lower rates which encourages spending. This is known as cheap money.

If a large company can borrow at a very low rate, invest into infrastructure, expansion, create jobs etc, then this will create growth thus inflation. Naturally the biggest fear for the central bank is deflation. The central bank will do almost anything to avoid deflation of it's economy.

Negative interest rates are a sign of pure desperation from central banks. it is like the last party trick when nothing else works.

The Negative to Negative Interest Rates

Banks need to hold deposits from you and me. Banks have minimum deposit requirements which determines their ability to lend. Retail banks lend out more than what they have, this is the power of fractional banking.

This creates an interesting situation for banks. They need to attract deposits in order to lend, however negative rates means the depositor need to pay the bank to hold their money.

The entire concept of negative rates or low rates in to encourage people to spend to create growth and spur on inflation.

One Crucial Consideration

For those that are in a financial position or are in a spending cycle within their life, what must you have? You need to have confidence. You need to feel some wealth factor, certainty about your job. Confidence in your economy will encourage you to buy a new car, upgrade your property, buy an investment property, expand your business etc.

Self funded baby boomers will not want to extend their financial commitments due to the low interest rate returns offered to them from the banks due to negative interest rates. They have however been lucky enough to have in recent years a good stock market with good dividends. They do not have confidence to be easy with their wealth.

Euro zone - TLTRO III

In a matter of hours we are about to have TLTRO III announced by the ECB. The most recent TLTRO was in 2016 during the Euro debt crisis. Back then the ECB deposit rate was -0.4%. The Euro zone has moved on since then and the situation for the region has improved. There has been some growth however their are still many headwinds ahead for the Euro zone. Trade wars are at play, Brexit is still dragging out and global growth is terrible.

When you see the term TLTRO III, just think the word "stimulus". 

How can I use this in my Trading?

As a trader, we need to be listening for shifts from the central banks. Let us assume that in 12 months from the installation of TLTRO III, we started to see some consistent growth come out of Europe. The central bank might start communicating a positive picture for the Euro zone. This would start to translate to less stimulus and at some point an increase in interest rates and less bond buying from the ECB.

The situation explained above would be positive for EUR. We would also need to know what the FED was thinking.

Currently the EURUSD is trading near 1.1200. This is on the back of a FED that has been hiking rates and a ECB that has been stimulating the market. Less than 12 months prior the EURUSD was trading at 1.1800. This was on the back of ECB signaling rate increases at some point in the near distant future. This never happened.

The micro data such as PMI's, employment, retail sales, CPI etc are drip feeding into price. Listed to what the central banks are saying. All this combined will lead to interest rate changes and this is what the market cares about.

Clarity for EURUSD Pair

As I mention in the Mastering EURUSD Course the EURUSD pair gives us two central banks with clear communication. Central banks do not want to shock the markets and will drip feed the market information relating to interest rates. Most often by the time an interest rate adjustment has been made, the change has already been priced in. This is why the press conference or meeting minutes are crucial as this is where the next direction on interest rates are coming from. 

USD is the backbone

The United states has a very big advantage. The advantage is that it owns the reserve currency of the world. More than 80% of all trade transactions are completed with USD. This makes the USD king. There will be a shift at some point in time, there always has been but for now it is the USD. If you own the worlds reserve currency, you have a very big advantage.

As traders we need to track the USD strength and weakness. This will determine flows in and out of currency pairs. By understanding the interest rate situation for your specific trading pair, you will also have an advantage. 

The more you can understand the market, the more success you will have. Do keep this in mind, the market does not always respond to the fundamental logic's, so be careful not to cast your opinion onto the market via a trading position.

Good Trading

Steve Teunis

Key Levels, Why They Matter

The purpose of key levels

Key levels are Support and Resistance levels where price could offer us a trade response.  These are levels where there is a line in the sand, where price should often pause. I explain key levels in depth within the Mastering course.

The future key levels are best observed on larger time frames. The 240 & 60-minute charts will give you a broad view of these key levels. You can either take a note of these key levels or document the levels on your chart. Once you have identified the future key levels there is no need to continually eyeball the levels on the larger time frame go down to a smaller time frame.

EURUSD 240 Minute chart

Below is the EURUSD 240 minute chart. The important key levels ​are documented and identified. Note, we are not looking to predict the direction of price or cast our opinions onto the market. We are looking to identify key levels where price might respond so we can execute a manageable trade.

Within this chart, you can identify where price has consistently traded within each key level parameter. Keep in mind, this is a 240-minute chart and not used for trade entry. It is also not going to be an exact science and slippage through the key levels needs to be considered.

Trading chart

EURUSD 4 hour chart with Support and Resistance Levels

Breaking down key levels

For intraday trading, use the 60 & 15-minute charts to help you fine-tune your trade selection. If price has been trading in a tight daily range, you will find the 15-minute chart useful. If price has been stretching the daily range, you will find the 60-minute chart more helpful. Either way, both 15 & 60-minute charts should be considered as tools for intraday trades. We are looking for price structure. Price structure will be how price merged into the key levels and the structure in and around the key level.

Smaller time frames

Keep in mind, we have identified future key levels from the larger time frames. We have then broken this down into the intraday charts of 15 & 60-minute time frames.

Assuming we have been able to identify a high odds and low-risk level, we now break this down into a much smaller time frame. The time frame might be a 2 or 5-minute chart. At this point, you should know in your mind the exact level you want to execute the trade entry. Wait with patients. Your level may or may not get hit.

There is more to it

Never ever just take a trade based on the identity of a key level. There is much more to be considered. All of those many considerations we discuss in the course as well during the daily insights newsletter. Some of those considerations will be, time of day, Average true range, news, fundamentals, currency pair characteristics, price delivery.

The main purpose of this article is to help you understand how you can identify key levels. Trade selection, trade execution, and trade management are all a different beast.

Be mindful, just because you have identified a key level, this is not a license to take a trade. Important to also consider why you should not take a trade.

Happy Trading, Steve.



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